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Today’s News - Page 41

Today's top breaking economic and financial market news.

EUR/GBP forecast sees range-bound trade as UK risk premium fades

EUR/GBP forecast sees range-bound trade as UK risk premium fades

The EUR/GBP forecast suggests the currency pair is likely to remain confined within a defined trading range as market concerns surrounding the UK’s fiscal outlook gradually ease, according to a new analysis published by UBS.Strategists at the Swiss bank noted that the fading of the budget-related risk premium has helped stabilize the British pound, while recent UK economic data has been relatively resilient, offering additional support to sterling against the euro.UK data supports pound as fiscal concerns diminishImproving economic indicators from the United Kingdom have reinforced confidence in the pound’s outlook, reducing volatility in the EUR/GBP exchange rate. UBS analysts highlighted that stronger domestic data has offset previous concerns about fiscal risks, helping the currency maintain stability despite broader market uncertainty.As a result, the risk premium that previously weighed on sterling appears to have been largely priced into markets, limiting significant downside pressure.ECB policy stability keeps euro impact limitedOn the euro side, the European Central Bank’s steady policy stance has contributed to muted movements in the single currency. UBS noted that recent Eurozone economic releases have been largely neutral, providing little momentum to drive major shifts in the EUR/GBP pair.The bank expects EUR/GBP to continue trading within a range between 0.86 and 0.89, with a gradual bias toward the upper end of this band by the end of 2026.Yield differential may balance total returnsDespite expectations for a gradual move higher in the exchange rate, UBS believes that the yield advantage currently favoring the British pound could lead to broadly similar total returns for investors holding either currency over the forecast horizon.Overall, the EUR/GBP forecast reflects a period of relative stability, with both currencies supported by steady policy outlooks and improving investor sentiment.

UA Finance•07 February
US dollar set for best weekly gain as ECB, BOE hold rates

US dollar set for best weekly gain as ECB, BOE hold rates

The US dollar eased slightly on Friday but remained on track for its strongest weekly performance in nearly a month, supported by safe-haven demand and shifting expectations around global monetary policy.The Dollar Index slipped modestly during late trading but was still poised for a weekly gain of roughly 0.6%, marking its best advance since early January. The greenback’s resilience follows renewed investor interest sparked by the nomination of former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair, a move widely interpreted as signaling a potentially more hawkish policy direction.Market participants expect Warsh’s leadership could favor tighter monetary conditions, including the possibility of balance sheet reductions, which has provided underlying support for the US currency throughout the week.Tech stock selloff boosts safe-haven demand for the dollarVolatility across global equity markets has contributed to the dollar’s strength, as investors reacted to a sharp selloff in technology stocks. Concerns over heavy spending on artificial intelligence and its broader economic implications triggered the largest weekly decline in global shares since November.The shift toward risk aversion encouraged flows into the US dollar as a defensive asset. Analysts noted that elevated valuation metrics in US equities and fully invested positioning among institutional investors have increased market vulnerability to negative surprises.While the widely anticipated US monthly jobs report was delayed until next week, several weaker labor market indicators released recently added uncertainty to the economic outlook. Market watchers believe any further signs of consumer weakness could influence expectations for future monetary policy and currency movements.Euro and sterling rebound after ECB and BOE decisionsIn Europe, the euro strengthened after the European Central Bank left interest rates unchanged, as expected. ECB President Christine Lagarde indicated that policymakers were not preparing for immediate rate cuts despite recent currency strength, helping support the single currency.The British pound also rebounded following the Bank of England’s decision to keep rates steady. However, dovish guidance and a closely split vote among policymakers reinforced expectations of a potential rate cut in the coming months, limiting sterling’s upside.Political uncertainty in the UK also weighed on market sentiment, with concerns about leadership challenges adding to currency volatility.Yen steady ahead of Japan elections; yuan extends gainsIn Asia, the Japanese yen remained relatively stable against the dollar, though the pair posted notable gains over the week. Investors are closely monitoring Japan’s upcoming lower house elections, as a stronger mandate for the current government could lead to expansionary fiscal policies.The Chinese yuan continued to advance, heading toward its longest weekly winning streak against the dollar in more than a decade. Strong midpoint guidance from the People’s Bank of China has supported the currency and helped keep it near multi-year highs.Elsewhere, the Australian dollar rallied after hawkish remarks from Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Michele Bullock increased expectations for further rate hikes, alongside stronger economic projections.

UA Finance•07 February
Asian currencies fall as dollar firms before ECB, BOE meetings

Asian currencies fall as dollar firms before ECB, BOE meetings

Asian currencies fall in Thursday trading as the US dollar strengthened ahead of key monetary policy decisions from major European central banks, while global market volatility continued to dampen appetite for risk-sensitive assets.The greenback gained modestly in Asian sessions, supported by cautious investor sentiment and expectations surrounding upcoming policy meetings by the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England (BOE). Meanwhile, traders remained focused on several regional developments, including India’s upcoming central bank decision and political events in Japan.Japanese yen weak as elections approachThe Japanese yen remained under pressure, with the USD/JPY pair edging higher toward the 157 level. Market attention is centered on Japan’s lower house elections scheduled for the weekend, where Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s party is expected to secure a stronger majority.Investors believe a larger mandate could pave the way for increased fiscal spending, raising concerns about Japan’s already stretched public finances. These worries, combined with official comments downplaying currency weakness, have weighed on the yen in recent weeks.Chinese yuan steady while regional currencies weakenThe Chinese yuan held relatively firm, remaining close to its strongest levels in nearly three years despite slight gains in the USD/CNY pair. The currency has been supported by consistent midpoint guidance from the People’s Bank of China, keeping the exchange rate below the psychologically important 7-yuan level.Elsewhere in the region, most Asian currencies moved lower. The Australian dollar retreated after falling back below the $0.70 mark, reversing part of its recent gains following a hawkish stance from the Reserve Bank of Australia earlier this week.The Indian rupee stabilized near 90.4 against the dollar ahead of a Reserve Bank of India meeting, where policymakers are widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged. A recently announced trade agreement between India and the United States provided some support to the rupee, although analysts anticipate the USD/INR pair will remain above the 90 level in the near term.The South Korean won, Singapore dollar, and Taiwan dollar also weakened slightly, with pressure on regional technology stocks contributing to cautious sentiment.Dollar strengthens ahead of ECB and BOE decisionsThe dollar index edged higher in Asian trading as investors positioned themselves ahead of interest rate decisions from the ECB and BOE later in the day. Both central banks are expected to maintain current policy settings amid elevated market uncertainty.The dollar’s recovery has also been fueled by shifting expectations around US monetary policy following the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve chair. Markets interpreted his stance as potentially less dovish than previously anticipated, raising the possibility of tighter long-term financial conditions in the United States.

UA Finance•05 February
US dollar rises as ECB and BOE decisions approach

US dollar rises as ECB and BOE decisions approach

The US dollar rises in Thursday trading, extending its recovery as investors seek safety amid heightened volatility in global equity markets, while the euro and British pound weakened ahead of key central bank policy announcements.The Dollar Index, which measures the greenback against a basket of major currencies, gained around 0.3% to reach 97.740, hovering near a two-week high after rebounding from multi-year lows seen recently.Market participants shifted toward the dollar as risk sentiment softened, driven largely by concerns surrounding elevated valuations in technology stocks and ongoing uncertainty linked to artificial intelligence investment trends. Analysts noted that a challenging environment for equities typically encourages flows into safe-haven currencies, providing additional support for the US currency.Recent developments in US monetary policy expectations also helped lift the dollar. The nomination of Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve chair reinforced expectations of a less dovish policy stance, which investors interpreted as supportive for the greenback.Meanwhile, economic data showed signs of cooling in the US labor market, although the release of key employment figures has been delayed due to a brief government shutdown. Investors are now closely watching upcoming secondary labor indicators, including weekly jobless claims and the latest JOLTS job openings data, for further clues about economic momentum.ECB and BOE meetings weigh on euro and poundThe euro slipped slightly against the dollar ahead of the European Central Bank’s policy meeting, where policymakers are widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged. Investors remain focused on the post-meeting press conference for signals about the future rate path, especially after strong gains in the single currency raised questions about potential effects on inflation.Recent data showed eurozone inflation slowing to 1.7% year-on-year in January, falling below the ECB’s 2% target and increasing speculation that policymakers could maintain a more accommodative stance if price pressures continue to ease.The British pound also declined as markets awaited the Bank of England’s policy decision. Expectations suggest the central bank will leave rates steady, while political uncertainty in the UK has added additional pressure on sterling.Analysts highlighted that potential changes in political leadership could influence fiscal policy expectations, creating further headwinds for the currency in the near term.Yen pressured ahead of elections; Asian currencies mixedIn Asia, the Japanese yen remained under pressure ahead of upcoming lower house elections, with expectations that increased fiscal spending could widen Japan’s already stretched fiscal position. This outlook has weighed on the currency in recent weeks.The Chinese yuan remained relatively firm, trading near its strongest levels in almost three years following strong midpoint guidance from the People’s Bank of China. Meanwhile, the Australian dollar slipped slightly after retreating from recent gains despite a hawkish interest rate increase by the Reserve Bank of Australia earlier this week.

UA Finance•05 February
Markets eye Alphabet AI spending, Amazon earnings ahead

Markets eye Alphabet AI spending, Amazon earnings ahead

Global markets moved cautiously on Thursday as investors tracked major technology developments, including Alphabet’s aggressive artificial intelligence spending plans and upcoming earnings from Amazon. Central bank policy decisions in Europe and declining precious metal prices also influenced market sentiment.Markets mixed as investors assess tech sector outlookU.S. stock futures traded mixed ahead of the Wall Street open, reflecting investor uncertainty as markets digested mega-cap technology earnings and continued volatility in software stocks. Dow futures edged slightly lower, while S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures posted modest gains.Recent weakness in software companies has raised questions about the evolving impact of artificial intelligence on the sector. Analysts note that the market is increasingly distinguishing between firms expected to benefit from AI adoption and those facing disruption risks, leading to sharper divergences in performance.Alphabet boosts AI ambitions with potential spending surgeAlphabet captured market attention after signaling that it may significantly increase capital expenditures to accelerate its artificial intelligence strategy. The Google parent company suggested investments could rise toward the $175 billion to $185 billion range, aimed at expanding advanced data centers and specialized chips supporting AI models.Chief Executive Officer Sundar Pichai highlighted strong returns from AI-related investments, pointing to robust growth across multiple business segments. The company’s Gemini AI platform reportedly reached hundreds of millions of monthly active users, reinforcing its positioning in the intensifying AI competition.While some investors expressed concerns over rising spending levels, improved performance in Google’s cloud business helped offset fears and stabilize sentiment around the stock.Amazon earnings in focus amid AI raceAttention now shifts to Amazon, which is set to release earnings after the closing bell. Investors are closely watching the company’s artificial intelligence strategy, particularly within its Amazon Web Services (AWS) division, a key revenue driver.Despite strong long-term growth fueled by cloud computing, Amazon has faced questions over whether it is keeping pace with rivals in the AI race. Expectations remain high for the crucial holiday quarter, with analysts forecasting solid revenue growth driven by expanding data center capacity and AI-powered services.Central bank decisions and falling metals add pressureBeyond corporate developments, markets are preparing for policy announcements from the European Central Bank and the Bank of England, both widely expected to maintain current interest rates. However, cooling eurozone inflation has raised speculation about potential future rate cuts.Meanwhile, precious metals declined as a stronger U.S. dollar weighed on sentiment. Silver led losses following sharp declines in Chinese markets, highlighting ongoing volatility across commodities amid shifting expectations for global monetary policy.

UA Finance•05 February
Bitcoin falls below $80,000 as liquidity concerns deepen

Bitcoin falls below $80,000 as liquidity concerns deepen

The world’s largest cryptocurrency slid more than 6% to trade around $78,700 during U.S. trading hours, marking its lowest level since late November. The latest drop underscores renewed risk aversion across digital assets, as investors reassess exposure to speculative markets.Friday’s selloff accelerated after former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh was nominated to lead the U.S. central bank, a development that lifted the U.S. dollar and weighed on alternative assets, including cryptocurrencies.Liquidity fears pressure crypto marketsMarket participants have grown increasingly cautious amid expectations that a Warsh-led Federal Reserve could pursue a tighter liquidity stance, including reducing the central bank’s balance sheet. Cryptocurrencies have historically benefited from abundant liquidity, often rallying during periods of aggressive monetary easing.Analysts warned that reduced liquidity could continue to weigh on risk-sensitive assets. Sharp price moves, they added, may also fuel additional selling as investors become more aware of downside risks.Broader digital assets extend lossesElsewhere, Ether posted steep losses, falling nearly 12% to trade near $2,390, highlighting the broader weakness across the cryptocurrency market. Digital assets have struggled to regain momentum after last year’s selloff, lagging behind strong gains in gold and global equities.Despite earlier optimism surrounding a more supportive regulatory environment, Bitcoin falls below $80,000 has now lost nearly one-third of its value since reaching record highs in October, reflecting the market’s sensitivity to shifts in liquidity and monetary policy expectations.

UA Finance•05 February
UK Services PMI January 2026 Shows Growth Despite Rising Costs

UK Services PMI January 2026 Shows Growth Despite Rising Costs

Britain’s services sector started 2026 on a strong note, with the latest S&P Global UK services PMI January 2026 survey showing robust growth and rising business confidence. The index climbed to 54.0 in January, up from December’s 51.4, marking the highest reading since August 2025.While the expansion signals optimism, firms reported increased costs, highlighting ongoing challenges for the Bank of England as it prepares for its interest rate decision later this week.Services Sector Growth and ConfidenceExpectations for future output reached their strongest levels since October 2024, despite concerns over geopolitical risks and weak consumer demand. Tim Moore, S&P Global’s economics director, noted that clarity following the budget measures has contributed to improved business confidence.The composite PMI, combining services and manufacturing, rose to 53.7 in January, the highest since August 2024, reflecting a solid start for the UK economy in 2026. Services export orders also increased at the second-fastest pace since October 2024.Rising Costs and Labour Market ChallengesDespite slower growth in input costs compared to December, companies raised prices at the fastest rate since August. Hiring declined for the 16th consecutive month, the longest continuous drop since 2010, as firms—particularly in hospitality—opted not to replace departing staff amid higher wages and economic uncertainty.The UK minimum wage is set to increase by 4.1% to £12.71 an hour in April, following a 6.7% rise last year. Rising payroll costs remain a key concern for businesses navigating the early months of 2026.Implications for the Bank of EnglandThe Bank of England is expected to maintain its policy rate at 3.75% on Thursday while monitoring services price inflation closely. Investors are anticipating one or two quarter-point rate cuts in 2026 as the BoE balances growth with inflation pressures.

UA Finance•04 February
Analysts Raise Gold Price Forecast 2026 Amid Global Uncertainty

Analysts Raise Gold Price Forecast 2026 Amid Global Uncertainty

Gold is on track for a record-breaking performance in 2026, according to a recent Reuters poll of analysts and traders. The survey of 30 experts revealed a median gold price forecast 2026 of $4,746.50 per troy ounce, up from $4,275 in October and marking the highest annual projection in Reuters polls since 2012.The surge in gold prices reflects mounting geopolitical tensions, strong central bank purchases, and ongoing concerns over the stability of global economic and financial systems. David Russell, CEO of precious metals dealer GoldCore, noted, "Institutions that have supported global stability for decades are being tested in ways not seen in a generation." Key Drivers Behind Gold’s RallyGold rebounded to near $5,100 recently, following its best day in over 17 years, recovering from the metal’s sharpest two-day decline since 1983. Analysts cite geopolitical risks, central bank buying, U.S. debt concerns, trade uncertainties, and de-dollarisation as key factors sustaining the rally. Deutsche Bank analysts emphasized that the rationale for gold allocations remains strong in 2026.Central Bank Buying and Market TrendsCentral banks are expected to continue expanding their gold reserves to diversify away from the U.S. dollar. Despite this, jewellery demand in key Asian markets may decline due to elevated prices, while investment-driven demand is likely to remain robust.Silver Outlook Also Revised UpwardsSilver forecasts have also been adjusted, with analysts predicting an average price of $79.50 per ounce in 2026, up from $50 in the October poll. Following a record 147% gain in 2025, silver reached $121.64 in January before retreating to $89.70. Analysts warn of continued volatility due to weakening industrial and jewellery demand, as well as easing supply tightness.

UA Finance•04 February
Poland Keeps Interest Rate at 4% Amid Strong 2025 Growth

Poland Keeps Interest Rate at 4% Amid Strong 2025 Growth

Poland’s central bank has decided to keep its benchmark interest rate at 4% for February 2026, marking the second consecutive month without changes in its monetary easing cycle. The decision aligns with forecasts from most analysts and reflects the country’s stronger-than-expected economic performance.While inflation remained moderate at 2.4% in December, slightly below the central bank’s 2.5% target, Poland’s economy expanded by 3.6% in 2025, surpassing economists’ predictions. This unexpected growth reinforces the central bank’s cautious approach toward further rate cuts. MPC’s Decision Reflects Cautious Monetary PolicyThe 10-member Monetary Policy Council (MPC) previously held rates steady in January, citing the need to assess the impact of its 175-basis-point easing throughout 2025. Governor Adam Glapinski, who typically sets the MPC’s direction, noted that there is limited room for additional rate reductions due to low inflationary pressures and strong economic momentum.Economic Outlook and Inflation TrendsDespite a period of tight monetary policy, inflation remains subdued, providing policymakers with flexibility to maintain current rates. Analysts suggest that Poland’s steady interest rate 2026 policy could support sustained growth while keeping inflation within the target range.H2: Upcoming Statements and Market ReactionsThe central bank is scheduled to release its official statement at 4 p.m. in Warsaw, with Governor Glapinski hosting his monthly press conference at 3 p.m. on Thursday. Market participants will closely monitor any guidance regarding future monetary policy adjustments.

UA Finance•04 February
Russia’s 2026 GDP Growth Seen at 1–1.3%, Deputy PM Says

Russia’s 2026 GDP Growth Seen at 1–1.3%, Deputy PM Says

Russia’s economy is expected to post modest growth in 2026, with gross domestic product projected to expand between 1% and 1.3%, according to Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak.Speaking on Tuesday, Novak said the outlook reflects continued economic adjustments as the country navigates structural constraints and a challenging external environment.Russia GDP Growth 2026 OutlookAddressing Russia’s upper house of parliament, Novak outlined expectations for steady but subdued expansion next year, underscoring that Russia GDP growth 2026 is likely to remain limited compared with pre-pandemic trends.The projection follows an estimated growth rate of around 1% for 2025, signalling that economic momentum is expected to stay broadly unchanged over the medium term.Labour Market Remains TightNovak also highlighted labour market conditions, estimating Russia’s unemployment rate at 2.2% in 2025, pointing to continued tightness in the job market despite slower economic growth.Economists say such low unemployment levels could help support domestic demand, even as overall growth remains constrained.Modest Growth Path AheadAnalysts note that Russia’s growth outlook reflects a combination of structural challenges and policy constraints, suggesting that Russia GDP growth 2026 will likely depend on productivity gains and domestic investment rather than external drivers.While the government expects the economy to avoid contraction, the subdued forecast underscores the limited scope for acceleration in the near term.

UA Finance•03 February

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