Russia’s 2026 GDP Growth Seen at 1–1.3%, Deputy PM Says

Russia’s economy is expected to post modest growth in 2026, with gross domestic product projected to expand between 1% and 1.3%, according to Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak.

Speaking on Tuesday, Novak said the outlook reflects continued economic adjustments as the country navigates structural constraints and a challenging external environment.

Russia GDP Growth 2026 Outlook

Addressing Russia’s upper house of parliament, Novak outlined expectations for steady but subdued expansion next year, underscoring that Russia GDP growth 2026 is likely to remain limited compared with pre-pandemic trends.

The projection follows an estimated growth rate of around 1% for 2025, signalling that economic momentum is expected to stay broadly unchanged over the medium term.

Labour Market Remains Tight

Novak also highlighted labour market conditions, estimating Russia’s unemployment rate at 2.2% in 2025, pointing to continued tightness in the job market despite slower economic growth.

Economists say such low unemployment levels could help support domestic demand, even as overall growth remains constrained.

Modest Growth Path Ahead

Analysts note that Russia’s growth outlook reflects a combination of structural challenges and policy constraints, suggesting that Russia GDP growth 2026 will likely depend on productivity gains and domestic investment rather than external drivers.

While the government expects the economy to avoid contraction, the subdued forecast underscores the limited scope for acceleration in the near term.