US Consumer Prices Likely Rose in February Ahead of Iran Conflict

US Inflation Likely Picked Up in February Before Iran Conflict Deepened

On March 11, 2026, Reuters reported that US consumer prices likely rose in February as gasoline became more expensive ahead of a wider escalation in the Middle East. Economists polled by Reuters expect the Consumer Price Index to increase 0.3% for the month after a 0.2% rise in January.

Reuters also said annual CPI is expected to come in at 2.4%, matching January. The report noted that higher fuel costs and the delayed impact of tariffs were likely behind the increase, even before the Iran conflict pushed oil prices even higher in late February and early March. 

Gas Prices and Tariffs Likely Added to Inflation Pressure

Reuters said gasoline prices were estimated to have risen about 0.8% in February’s CPI report. The news agency added that pump prices later jumped more than 18% to $3.54 a gallon after the US-Israeli war on Iran began at the end of February, showing how energy prices were already becoming a problem for consumers.

The Reuters report also said businesses were still passing some tariff costs on to shoppers. That likely lifted prices for goods such as apparel and household furnishings, even though some softer areas, including used cars and airline fares, may have helped keep underlying inflation from rising too fast. 

Fed Outlook May Stay the Same for Now

Reuters said core CPI, which excludes food and energy, is expected to rise 0.2% in February and 2.5% from a year earlier. Even with inflation likely moving up, the report said the data is not expected to change near-term Federal Reserve policy, with the central bank still widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged next week.

In simple terms, February inflation likely moved higher before the full market effect of the Iran conflict was felt. That means price pressure may stay in focus in the coming months, especially if oil and fuel costs remain elevated.