“Almost No Chance of Fed Rate Hike” Sees Wolfe Research
On Tuesday, March 24, 2026, Stephanie Roth from Wolfe Research says the Fed is highly unlikely to increase interest rates in the near term. Regardless of rising inflation risks from energy shocks, there is a reinforcing expectation that policy will remain on hold.
Fed Rate Hike Unlikely Despite Market Turbulence
“The probability of the Fed rate hike remains extremely low,” according to Wolfe Research, even as markets grapple with inflation risks tied to rising oil prices and geopolitical tensions. While inflation uncertainty persists, the current economic conditions do not justify tightening. Instead, the base case remains a prolonged pause. Policymakers are prioritizing stability amid mixed signals from growth and inflation dynamics.
Fed Policy Outlook Scenarios
Scenario | Inflation Trend | Growth Outlook | Fed Action | Market Impacts |
Stable Inflation | Moderating | Moderate | Hold Rates | Neutral |
Sticky Inflation | Elevated | Slowing | Hawkish Pause | Volatile |
Rising Inflation Shock | Accelerating | Weakening | Possible Hike | Risk-Off |
Growth Deterioration | Falling | Weak | Rate Cuts | Bullish Bonds |
Markets Overpricing Tightening Risk
Wolfe Research’s outlook implies that markets overestimate the Fed’s tightening. Unless inflation broadens significantly beyond Energy-driven pressures, bank governors are to maintain a cautious pause over rate hikes.
