TTF Gas Price Set for Q2 Jumps on European Supply Tightening

European markets opened Tuesday, 17 March 2026, as Goldman Sachs flagged stronger upside for TTF natural gas prices this spring amid tightening gas fundamentals and supply disruption. The outlook comes as Europe faces constrained supply flows and shifting LNG patterns, potentially pushing Dutch gas futures higher in Q2 2026.

Goldman: European Gas Tightness to Boost TTF Prices in Q2

Market Pressure on Europe’s Gas Benchmark

·       Supple squeeze: Roughly 19% of global LNG capacity remains offline due to halted flows through the Strait of Hormuz and a shutdown at Qatar’s LNG facilities.

·       Forecast shift: Goldman holds its Q2 TTF forecast at €63/MWh, signaling elevated prices may be needed to balance the market if disruptions outlast early-May recovery.

·       Demand response: Gas-to-coal switching has cut regional demand by >20 mcm/d, but stronger seasonal consumption could tighten balances further.

·       Limited offsets: Alternative supply routes or output increases from other producers are unlikely to fully mitigate the current shortfall.

Implications for Europe’s Winter Recovery Phase

Goldman’s outlook suggests prices may need to climb into the oil-switching range (~€57-84/MWh) to curb demand and stabilize inventories as Europe transitions into its refill season. Market direction will hinge on LNG flow restoration and seasonal demand patterns.

Tight Gas Fundamentals Persist.

Goldman Sachs says European gas market tightening and LNG disruptions could lift TTF prices further in Q2 2026, keeping benchmarks elevated.